US stocks finished mixed with price action choppy after soft data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were choppy with early selling pressure seen following soft US data including a contraction in the advanced reading for Q1 GDP which was accompanied by rising Core PCE Prices to boost stagflationary concerns. Furthermore, the ADP employment report was woeful ahead of Friday's NFP and the Chicago PMI disappointed ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, while the March PCE was mixed overall but with upward revisions. As such, equity futures and T-notes tumbled in response to the data but recovered those losses by settlement, while the buying in stocks accelerated into the US cash close on month-end flows.
• USD strengthened against G10 peers into month-end and was ultimately unfazed by the soft US data releases in which the GDP Advance reading came in below expectations and showed a contraction of 0.3% which was the first decline since Q1 2022, while the March PCE report showed mixed signals. Elsewhere, trade updates had little sway over the current dynamics, with USTR Greer noting they are "some weeks out" on a trade deal, while the Chinese press offered optimism on US-China relations, noting the US reached out to China recently for tariff talks.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Final Manufacturing PMI, Trade Data & Import/Export Prices, Japanese Final Manufacturing PMI & Household Confidence, BoJ Policy Decision & Outlook Report, Holiday Closures in Mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand & Europe on Labor Day.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Australian Final Manufacturing PMI, Trade Data & Import/Export Prices, Japanese Final Manufacturing PMI & Household Confidence, BoJ Policy Decision & Outlook Report, Holiday Closures in Mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand & Europe on Labor Day.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were choppy with early selling pressure seen following soft US data including a contraction in the advanced reading for Q1 GDP which was accompanied by rising Core PCE Prices to boost stagflationary concerns. Furthermore, the ADP employment report was woeful ahead of Friday's NFP and the Chicago PMI disappointed ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, while the March PCE was mixed overall but with upward revisions. As such, equity futures and T-notes tumbled in response to the data but recovered those losses by settlement, while the buying in stocks accelerated into the US cash close on month-end flows.
• SPX +0.15% at 5,569, NDX +0.13% at 19,571, DJI +0.35% at 40,669, RUT -0.63% at 1,964.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said tariffs have not kicked in yet and he knows China is doing very poorly right now, while he added that at a certain point, he hopes for a deal with China. Trump also said that fairness with China includes intellectual property and he does not want China's products unless they are fair.
• US President Trump said China's ships are loaded up, much of which the US does not need and that China is having tremendous difficulty, while he added that China is the leading candidate for ‘Chief Ripper Off-er’. Furthermore, Trump said he thinks they are doing great on trade deals and separately commented that it will happen when asked if he will speak with China President Xi, while he also stated that Canadian PM Carney called him yesterday and said let's make a deal.
• USTR Greer said they have dozens of written offers on trade and are "some weeks out" on deals.
• US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said regarding tariffs that everything is on the table.
• White House Trade Adviser Navarro said we like where we're at now with respect to China and he thinks tariff and trade policy is working beautifully and said the best way to negotiate with China is very quietly.
• US is said to have reached out to China recently for tariff talk, according to Bloomberg citing Yuyuan Tantian.
• EU is to present trade proposals to the US next week, according to Bloomberg citing officials.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said the US easing of auto tariffs is a step forward and a recognition of the North American trade agreement.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said the "one big beautiful bill" may be bigger than tariffs and a tax increase is unsustainable if 2017 cuts are not continued.
• US President Trump said core GDP was up, despite distortions and he praised gross domestic investment. Trump separately commented that he is not taking credit or discredit for the stock market and that the stock market is an indicator.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump has created negotiating leverage and leadership, while he said the US is on the verge of becoming an AI superpower.
• White House Trade Adviser Navarro said the earlier data was the best negative GDP print he has seen, including a 22% increase in domestic investment along with other positive signals under the hood, according to CNBC.
• Wall Street firms are generally advising clients they should prepare for the Trump tariffs to bring the inflation rate up to 4% and for a slowdown in the economy by the summer, according to FBN's Gasparino.
• US President Trump told Elon Musk he is invited to stay as long as he wants regarding working in the government but added that Musk wants to get back home to his cars.

AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS

• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.46 (exp. 3.21), Revenue 70.1bln (exp. 68.41bln)
• Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q1 (USD) EPS 6.43 (exp. 5.23), Revenue 42.31bln (exp. 41.43bln)
• Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.85 (exp. 2.80), Revenue 10.84bln (exp. 10.60bln)
• eBay Inc (EBAY) Q1 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.38 (exp. 1.34), Revenue 2.6bln (exp. 2.55bln)

DATA RECAP

• US GDP Advance (Q1) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Bloomberg consensus was -0.2%), (Prev. 2.4%)
• US Core PCE Prices Advance (Q1) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.6%)
• US PCE Price Index MM (Mar) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.4%)
• US PCE Price Index YY (Mar) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.5%, Rev. 2.7%)
• US Core PCE Price Index MM (Mar) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.5%)
• US Core PCE Price Index YY (Mar) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%, Rev. 3.0%)
• US Personal Income MM (Mar) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.7%)
• US Consumption, Adjusted MM (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.5%)
• US ADP National Employment (Apr) 62.0k vs. Exp. 115.0k (Prev. 155.0k, Rev. 147k)
• US Chicago PMI (Apr) 44.6 vs. Exp. 45.5 (Prev. 47.6)

FX

• USD strengthened against G10 peers into month-end and was ultimately unfazed by the soft US data releases in which the GDP Advance reading came in below expectations and showed a contraction of 0.3% which was the first decline since Q1 2022, while the March PCE report showed mixed signals. Elsewhere, trade updates had little sway over the current dynamics, with USTR Greer noting they are "some weeks out" on a trade deal, while the Chinese press offered optimism on US-China relations, noting the US reached out to China recently for tariff talks.
• EUR was pressured amid the firmer buck which saw the single currency trickle retreat away from the 1.1400 level despite stronger-than-expected EU GDP data.
• GBP trickled lower throughout the session below the 1.3400 level amid the dollar strength and with very little fresh UK-specific catalysts.
• JPY gave way to the dollar strength which saw USD/JPY retest the 143.00 level to the upside, while participants now look ahead to the BoJ policy announcement.
• BoC Minutes stated that ahead of the April 16th meeting, the Governing Council was split over whether to cut or hold as members favouring no change wanted to gain more information on US tariffs, backed a wait-and-see approach and felt another cut could be premature, given upward pressure on inflation from tariffs could come quickly. Meanwhile, members favouring a cut cited muted near-term inflation risks and signs the economy was weakening.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled mildly higher and the curve steepened amid soft US data releases ahead of IJC, ISM Mfg. PMI and NFP.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices were initially pressured due to risk sentiment and later plunged on reports that Saudi Arabia can withstand prolonged periods of low oil prices.
• US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks -2.696M vs. Exp. 0.429M (Prev. 0.244M).
• Saudi officials reportedly briefed allies and industry experts that the kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices, according to Reuters citing sources.
• US sanctioned seven entities engaged in the trade of Iranian oil.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• An Israeli strike near Damascus killed one Syrian security force member, according to Reuters citing sources. It was separately reported that the Israeli government stated that on Netanyahu's instructions, the army carried out a strike against a group that tried to attack the Druze in Sahnaya (Syria), according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said US sanctions send a negative message during the nuclear talks and the E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky told US President Trump during a meeting at The Vatican that he needs to take a tougher line with Russian President Putin and reprioritise a ceasefire, according to Axios.
• Ukraine's Foreign Minister said if Russia is ready for a 60-or 90-day ceasefire, Ukraine is open for it as well. It was also reported that Ukraine’s PM Shmyhal said Ukraine and the US are working on the final details of the minerals deal, while the deal is to be signed in the nearest future and two additional agreements are to follow.
• Ukraine was said to be ready to sign the US resources deal as early as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. It was later reported that the US wants Ukraine to sign two additional documents as well as the minerals deal and that Kyiv thinks they need more work, while FT also reported that negotiations on the US-Ukraine minerals deal had not concluded because Ukraine had sought to revisit terms which were agreed on at the weekend.
• Ukraine-US minerals deal draft stated that 50% of revenue from royalties, production sharing agreement on new natural resources permits and licences will go into the fund, and if the US provides military assistance ahead, the cost will count as a contribution. Furthermore, Ukraine is to give the US, or a designee, first refusal on applicable new investment opportunities, while the deal does not outline how funds are to be spent and the minerals deal does not cover Ukraine's energy or port infrastructure.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US side is ready to sign the Ukraine minerals deal and that the Ukrainian side made some last-minute changes.
• US Senator Graham, who is a close ally of President Trump, is forging ahead on a plan to impose new sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, gas and uranium, while the bill also would impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products, according to WSJ.
• Russian President Putin said he has no doubt that Russia's relations with Europe will be restored sooner or later.

OTHER

• India and Pakistan military operations chiefs talked on April 29th and the Indian side objected strongly to unprovoked firing happening from Pakistan, according to Indian military sources.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Chinese President Xi said China is to adjust economic plans based on global change and is to promote the transformation of traditional industries, while they are to stabilise markets and expectations. Furthermore, Xi urged to address weak links in the economy and to achieve goals in all aspects, as well as stated that China is to optimise economic planning based on situations.
• China lifted sanctions against European Parliament members.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB’s Makhlouf said price risks are less clear in the medium term than near-term.
• EU is set to admit that untangling from the dominance of US tech companies is “unrealistic”, according to Politico.

DATA RECAP

• EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q1) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• EU GDP Flash Prelim YY (Q1) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%)
• German GDP Flash QQ SA (Q1) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
• German GDP Flash YY SA (Q1) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
• German CPI Prelim MM (Apr) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
• German CPI Prelim YY (Apr) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.2%)
• German Unemployment Change SA (Apr) 4.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 26.0k)
• German Unemployment Rate SA (Apr) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%)
• German Retail Sales MM Real (Mar) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%)
• German Retail Sales YY Real (Mar) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 4.9%)